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Talk to an Expert| Category | Ass | Subject | Management |
|---|---|---|---|
| University | _____________ | Module Title | MS924 Spreadsheet Modelling & Demand Forecasting |
TOTAL: 60 marks
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https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/livestock-and-meataustralia/latest-release
Create a spreadsheet model to implement simple exponential forecasting to forecast the number of lambs slaughtered in the next four months. Find the optimal values for the parameters of your model.
(10 marks)
3. Write a VBA function that takes the time series and its forecast as input and returns the mean squared error.
(10 marks)
4. Case Study
A small company has commissioned you to develop a useful spreadsheet modelling tool to support their demand forecasting on a weekly basis. The tool will be used by the Operations Manager who needs forecasts of demand for 1-4 weeks ahead to help him plan production. He also needs a useful way of monitoring the performance of forecasts that he can use in weekly and monthly management reports, since this information will help inform inventory policies, for example.
To build, test and demonstrate the use of your modelling tool, the Operations Manager has made available the data in the spreadsheet “MS924 resit assignment data” and can be downloaded from Myplace page folder “Resit assignment brief and data files”
You should develop a spreadsheet modelling tool that will support the implementation of an adaptive exponential smoothing method for the company, and you should include a mechanism for assessing forecast error and summarising it appropriately to meet the Operations Manager’s needs.
You should design your spreadsheet so that it can be used by company staff who have no knowledge of demand forecasting methods, but who will need to apply your model to make forecasts weekly and for multiple products. Therefore, your modelling tool should have the capability of being used with multiple product lines and also be dynamically updated as new demand data becomes available. This has implications not only for updating the forecasts but also for the windows over which forecast error performance measures might be used.
You should also use the data provided by the company to test that your model is working as expected and to illustrate to the user how to use your spreadsheet model and how to interpret the results. The company would like a copy of your spreadsheet modelling tool (in an Excel file) and a concise report (approximately 2 pages) that provides them with all the critical information they need to use your model and make sense of the forecasts it provides. The spreadsheet modelling tool should be able to be used by the Operations Manager and peer-reviewed by independent analysts.
In summary our required deliverables are:
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