OMGT1039 Operations Management Case study Assignment 1 Task | RMIT

OMGT1039 Task:

Use your knowledge of forecasting to answer the case questions. 

Submission Requirements: 

• Must use four decimal points for all analyses. 
• Submit just one Microsoft Excel file. 
• Your Excel file should contain the formula used for data analysis. Use the Template Excel file on Canvas. 
• Answer each question in separate sheets. 
• Using references is not requited in this assignment

OMGT1039 Case study: 

Housing Price An overview of the housing market in a metropolitan city reveals dynamic shifts in housing prices over the past decades. This assignment will delve into the analysis of property prices in the city, exploring the myriad factors that may impact the housing market. Various factors contribute to the fluctuation in property values, including supply and demand, interest rates, location, economic outlook, and other influential elements. In this assignment you are required to use your knowledge in forecasting concept and techniques.

The required data for this assignment is based on your student number. It means you should use your student number (without 's') and generate all data for this assignment. Please watch the short video on Canvas which shows how to generate data. After you follow the steps shown in the Video you should have a spreadsheet has four columns for Period, Housing price, Interest rate and Employment. Now you can start analyzing the data and answering the following research questions (for the details of the making please see Marking criteria table).

OMGT1039 Case questions: 

1.Use exponential smoothing to forecast the house price for period 51 and all possible periods. For this question: 

• Explain what value of alpha should be used to forecast the price of house in this city and explain why? The aim is to find the most accurate forecast using MAD, MSE and MAPE. 
• Your Excel file should contain the formula and brief explanations for each step in arriving the final answer.
• Plot the results and explain in detail with all calculations.
• Use four decimalpoints for your analysis. 

2.What does the chosen value for alpha mean? You need to show your understanding and interpretation of the chosen alpha. Explain in 2-3 lines. 

3.Based on the forecast techniques discussed in Week 2, which method do you recommend to forecast the house price for the following periods: 51, 52, 53 and 54. Explain why? 

4.Based on your recommended method in Question 3, calculate the forecasts for periods 51, 52, 53 and 54. Show and explain the calculations. 

5.It is argued that interest rates and employment have a causal impact on the housing price. Run the analysis and see whether you can find any such impact. Which variable (interest rate or employment) has a stronger impact on price? Plot the results and show and explain the calculations.

OMGT1039 Marking criteria: